← Follower
Backtest · Conviction
Most conviction filters lose to SPY.
Buy $10k at every fund disclosure but hold to today (regardless of whether the fund still owns it), then filter to signals where the fund itself held the position for at least N quarters. The pattern: filters from ≥1Q through ≥12Q underperform SPY in aggregate. Only ≥16Q and ≥20Q eke out positive alpha, and those buckets are dominated by six-to-eight surviving value/activist funds — interpret accordingly.
122,824 total signals across 25 marquee funds. Move the slider below to tighten the conviction filter.
Conviction filter — min quarters held by fund
≥ 4Q(12+ months)
Filter signals to positions the fund held for at least N quarters (consistent reporting across N consecutive 13Fs). All trades exit at today's price — not the fund's exit — modeling a follower who uses 13F as an idea source but holds longer.
Exit whenIgnore fund's exit; mark to current price.
Headline
Total invested
$1.12B
112,046 signals × $10k
Held to today
$1.66B
+48.6% on capital
SPY ending value
$1.66B
+48.3% on same dollars
Alpha vs SPY
+$2.7M
+0.2% of invested capital
Beat SPY (win rate)
37%
signals with positive alpha
Avg signal return
+48.6%
Median signal return
+7.6%
Avg fund hold
12.7Q
1142 days
Compare: the follower would have ended at $1.33B (+18.6%). Holding longer than the fund improved the result by $335.95M.
Alpha by conviction level
Higher conviction = longer fund hold≥ 1Q
-0.5% alpha122,824 sig
≥ 2Q
-0.5% alpha119,167 sig
≥ 3Q
-0.2% alpha115,709 sig
≥ 4Q
+0.2% alpha112,046 sig
≥ 5Q
+0.3% alpha107,603 sig
≥ 6Q
+0.3% alpha101,356 sig
≥ 8Q
-5.9% alpha25,030 sig
≥ 10Q
-4.0% alpha23,930 sig
≥ 12Q
-2.7% alpha23,071 sig
≥ 16Q
+1.1% alpha20,997 sig
≥ 20Q
+5.5% alpha18,601 sig
Each bar is the aggregate alpha-vs-SPY of signals where the fund held the position for at least N quarters. Click any bar to jump to that filter level. Longer-held positions = stronger conviction but smaller sample.
Per-fund contribution
| Fund | Signals | Invested | Held to today | SPY | Alpha | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citadel Advisors | 18,356 | $183.56M | $227.54M | $221.08M | +$6.47M | +24.0% |
| Two Sigma Investments | 11,155 | $111.55M | $139.07M | $133.18M | +$5.89M | +24.7% |
| Millennium Management | 13,571 | $135.71M | $169.14M | $163.88M | +$5.25M | +24.6% |
| Renaissance Technologies | 12,616 | $126.16M | $156.7M | $153.2M | +$3.5M | +24.2% |
| Point72 Asset Management | 4,891 | $48.91M | $61.19M | $58.27M | +$2.92M | +25.1% |
| D.E. Shaw | 10,177 | $101.77M | $125.75M | $122.91M | +$2.83M | +23.6% |
| Appaloosa | 461 | $4.61M | $13.41M | $10.79M | +$2.62M | +191.0% |
| Duquesne Family Office | 858 | $8.58M | $22.99M | $21.01M | +$1.97M | +167.9% |
| Greenlight Capital | 197 | $1.97M | $7.44M | $5.68M | +$1.76M | +277.5% |
| Coatue Management | 1,425 | $14.25M | $36.27M | $35.22M | +$1.05M | +154.5% |
| Scion Asset Management | 95 | $950K | $2.86M | $1.94M | +$918.35K | +201.2% |
| AQR Capital Management | 13,707 | $137.07M | $163.53M | $162.85M | +$673.42K | +19.3% |
| Elliott Management | 80 | $800K | $3.02M | $2.8M | +$217.49K | +277.3% |
| Soros Fund Management | 324 | $3.24M | $3.87M | $3.93M | −$59.33K | +19.5% |
| Pershing Square | 67 | $670K | $1.24M | $1.6M | −$352.92K | +85.5% |
| D1 Capital Partners | 401 | $4.01M | $6.95M | $7.52M | −$565.96K | +73.4% |
| Tiger Global | 593 | $5.93M | $14.21M | $14.92M | −$713.88K | +139.6% |
| Glenview Capital | 750 | $7.5M | $19.41M | $20.18M | −$768.7K | +158.8% |
| JANA Partners | 135 | $1.35M | $3.74M | $4.67M | −$930.75K | +176.9% |
| Berkshire Hathaway | 274 | $2.74M | $7.61M | $8.69M | −$1.08M | +177.6% |
| Lone Pine Capital | 605 | $6.05M | $14.97M | $17.42M | −$2.45M | +147.5% |
| Viking Global Investors | 1,380 | $13.8M | $31.21M | $34.41M | −$3.2M | +126.2% |
| Third Point | 497 | $4.97M | $9.88M | $13.31M | −$3.43M | +98.7% |
| Bridgewater Associates | 13,060 | $130.6M | $292.52M | $300.91M | −$8.39M | +124.0% |
| Maverick Capital | 6,371 | $63.71M | $130.04M | $141.48M | −$11.44M | +104.1% |
Currently-held positions
still in fund's latest 13F · ≥ 4Q heldResearch starting points, not recommendations. 13F disclosures lag actual trades by up to 45 days, and a fund's reason for owning a name often doesn't survive the move from their book to yours.
12,722 picks
| Ticker | Issuer | Fund | First bought | Held | Cost | Now | Return | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IVV | ISHARES TR | Bridgewater Associates | Q3 2013 | 52.0Q | $137 | $742 | +442% | +1% vs SPY |
| LQD | ISHARES TR | Bridgewater Associates | Q3 2013 | 52.0Q | $72 | $108 | +49% | -393% vs SPY |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF TR | Bridgewater Associates | Q3 2013 | 52.0Q | $136 | $759 | +457% | +15% vs SPY |
| VWO | VANGUARD INTL EQUITY INDEX F | Bridgewater Associates | Q3 2013 | 52.0Q | $28 | $58 | +110% | -332% vs SPY |
| AMZN | AMAZON COM INC | Coatue Management | Q3 2013 | 52.0Q | $15 | $257 | +1667% | +1223% vs SPY |
| NFLX | NETFLIX INC | Coatue Management | Q3 2013 | 52.0Q | $3.74 | $90 | +2297% | +1852% vs SPY |
| THC | TENET HEALTHCARE CORP | Glenview Capital | Q3 2013 | 52.0Q | $41 | $192 | +364% | -81% vs SPY |
| AXP | AMERICAN EXPRESS CO | Berkshire Hathaway | Q3 2013 | 51.9Q | $63 | $311 | +396% | -56% vs SPY |
| KO | COCA COLA CO | Berkshire Hathaway | Q3 2013 | 51.9Q | $26 | $78 | +199% | -254% vs SPY |
| DVA | DAVITA HEALTHCARE PARTNERS I | Berkshire Hathaway | Q3 2013 | 51.9Q | $57 | $189 | +234% | -218% vs SPY |
| MCO | MOODYS CORP | Berkshire Hathaway | Q3 2013 | 51.9Q | $56 | $451 | +703% | +251% vs SPY |
| VRSN | VERISIGN INC | Berkshire Hathaway | Q3 2013 | 51.9Q | $48 | $302 | +530% | +78% vs SPY |
| META | FACEBOOK INC | Coatue Management | Q4 2013 | 50.9Q | $49 | $611 | +1157% | +747% vs SPY |
| GRBK | GREEN BRICK PARTNERS INC | Greenlight Capital | Q1 2015 | 45.9Q | $7.45 | $63 | +752% | +427% vs SPY |
| QSR | RESTAURANT BRANDS INTL INC | Pershing Square | Q1 2015 | 45.8Q | $31 | $71 | +134% | -190% vs SPY |
| JD | JD COM INC | Tiger Global | Q1 2015 | 45.8Q | $24 | $30 | +27% | -298% vs SPY |
| AMZN | AMAZON COM INC | Tiger Global | Q3 2015 | 43.8Q | $27 | $257 | +869% | +547% vs SPY |
| KHC | KRAFT HEINZ CO | Berkshire Hathaway | Q4 2015 | 42.8Q | $45 | $23 | -48% | -376% vs SPY |
| GOOG | ALPHABET INC | Appaloosa | Q2 2016 | 40.8Q | $35 | $363 | +931% | +606% vs SPY |
| AAPL | APPLE INC | Berkshire Hathaway | Q2 2016 | 40.8Q | $21 | $315 | +1373% | +1052% vs SPY |
| PYPL | PAYPAL HLDGS INC | Coatue Management | Q2 2016 | 40.8Q | $39 | $45 | +14% | -306% vs SPY |
| IEMG | ISHARES INC | Bridgewater Associates | Q4 2016 | 38.8Q | $34 | $79 | +134% | -163% vs SPY |
| META | FACEBOOK INC | Appaloosa | Q4 2016 | 38.8Q | $114 | $611 | +435% | +138% vs SPY |
| META | FACEBOOK INC | Tiger Global | Q1 2017 | 37.7Q | $133 | $611 | +360% | +94% vs SPY |
| MSFT | MICROSOFT CORP | Tiger Global | Q1 2017 | 37.7Q | $58 | $424 | +628% | +362% vs SPY |
| UNH | UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC | Appaloosa | Q2 2017 | 36.8Q | $148 | $376 | +153% | -103% vs SPY |
| ET | ENERGY TRANSFER EQUITY L P | Appaloosa | Q3 2017 | 35.7Q | $8.12 | $20 | +149% | -95% vs SPY |
| DXC | DXC TECHNOLOGY CO | Glenview Capital | Q3 2017 | 35.7Q | $69 | $9.27 | -87% | -330% vs SPY |
| BAC | BANK AMER CORP | Berkshire Hathaway | Q4 2017 | 34.7Q | $22 | $52 | +144% | -84% vs SPY |
| NOW | SERVICENOW INC | Tiger Global | Q4 2017 | 34.7Q | $25 | $126 | +406% | +179% vs SPY |
Each row is a position the fund is still holding in their latest 13F that has met the conviction filter selected above. Sorted by current hold duration (longest first = strongest conviction). “Cost” is the price at the first disclosure; a follower buying today pays the “Now” price, so their forward return won't mirror the column shown here.
Top alpha winners
- NVDA · NVIDIA CORPBridgewater Associates · bought Q3 2013 · held 52.0Q+$6.58M+66286% vs SPY +442%
- NVDA · NVIDIA CORPBridgewater Associates · bought Q1 2014 · held 52.0Q+$5.58M+56190% vs SPY +399%
- NVDA · NVIDIA CORPBridgewater Associates · bought Q2 2014 · held 52.0Q+$5.16M+52005% vs SPY +379%
- NVDA · NVIDIA CORPBridgewater Associates · bought Q3 2014 · held 52.0Q+$4.92M+49570% vs SPY +366%
- NVDA · NVIDIA CORPBridgewater Associates · bought Q2 2015 · held 52.0Q+$4.31M+43448% vs SPY +318%
- NVDA · NVIDIA CORPBridgewater Associates · bought Q2 2016 · held 52.0Q+$2.18M+22159% vs SPY +325%
- NVDA · NVIDIA CORPMaverick Capital · bought Q2 2016 · held 40.8Q+$2.12M+21521% vs SPY +320%
- NVDA · NVIDIA Corp.Duquesne Family Office · bought Q3 2016 · held 33.5Q+$1.41M+14346% vs SPY +295%
- NVDA · NVIDIA CORPBridgewater Associates · bought Q4 2016 · held 52.0Q+$1.26M+12881% vs SPY +298%
- NVDA · NVIDIA CORPCoatue Management · bought Q4 2016 · held 38.8Q+$1.05M+10758% vs SPY +297%
Biggest alpha losses
- HAIN · HAIN CELESTIAL GROUP INCCoatue Management · bought Q3 2013 · held 26.4Q−$54.25K-98% vs SPY +444%
- FOSL · FOSSIL GROUP INCGlenview Capital · bought Q3 2013 · held 9.2Q−$54.11K-97% vs SPY +444%
- FOSL · FOSSIL GROUP INCBridgewater Associates · bought Q3 2013 · held 13.2Q−$53.84K-97% vs SPY +442%
- CYH · COMMUNITY HEALTH SYS INC NEWGlenview Capital · bought Q3 2013 · held 11.2Q−$53.66K-92% vs SPY +444%
- CYH · COMMUNITY HEALTH SYS INC NEWMaverick Capital · bought Q3 2013 · held 40.6Q−$53.66K-92% vs SPY +444%
- DDD · 3-D SYS CORP DELTiger Global · bought Q3 2013 · held 8.1Q−$53.64K-92% vs SPY +444%
- VRA · VERA BRADLEY INCTiger Global · bought Q3 2013 · held 4.1Q−$52.85K-84% vs SPY +444%
- OIS · OIL STS INTL INCGreenlight Capital · bought Q3 2013 · held 12.2Q−$52.69K-82% vs SPY +444%
- OIS · OIL STS INTL INCJANA Partners · bought Q3 2013 · held 5.1Q−$52.69K-82% vs SPY +444%
- TRIP · TRIPADVISOR INCLone Pine Capital · bought Q3 2013 · held 6.1Q−$52.63K-82% vs SPY +444%
Caveats
- Survivorship bias.These nine marquee funds were chosen because they're well-known and still operating — i.e. survivors. The aggregate alpha is biased upward versus a sample that would include funds that blew up (Archegos, Melvin, Bill Hwang, etc.). Treat absolute headline numbers as upper bounds; comparisons between funds within the sample are still informative.
- Conviction = (last appearance − first appearance) in the fund's 13Fs, in quarters. A fund that opened a position in Q1 2020 and exited Q1 2022 counts as 8 quarters of hold. This measures duration, not position weight — a 100-share placeholder held for 20 quarters scores the same as a 5%-of- portfolio core holding. Weight-aware ranking is on the roadmap (depends on reference-data layer).
- All buys priced at filing date (45-day disclosure lag baked in). Exit pricing depends on the mode selected above: “Hold to today” (default) marks every signal at the latest close; “Sell when fund sold” uses the fund's actual exit price (or today, for still-open positions).
- Heavy funds (Renaissance Technologies, Citadel Advisors, Soros Fund Management, Two Sigma Investments, D.E. Shaw, AQR Capital Management, Millennium Management, Point72 Asset Management) use 8-quarter snapshots, so a ≥8Q conviction filter will mostly exclude them. Funds with full history (Berkshire, Pershing, Tiger, Bridgewater, Appaloosa) dominate the high-conviction buckets.
- Each “buy signal” is a separate $10k lot — so a position the fund added to 8 times generates 8 lots, each with its own entry price.
- No transaction costs, slippage, taxes, borrow, or short-rebate modeled. Tax drag in particular destroys high-turnover strategies; treat the headline returns as gross.