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Backtest
The disclosure follower
Buy a fixed dollar amount of every position each marquee fund discloses (new opens and adds), at the filing-date price. Sell the moment the fund's next filing no longer shows it. Drag the slider to size each signal differently and see how the dollar figures rescale.
61,633 buy signals across 9 funds · 26,299 closed · 35,334 marked-to-market · avg hold 324 days
Position size per signal
$10,000
$500$250K
Slide to size every individual buy signal differently. Percentages (returns, alpha %, win rate) don't change — only the dollar figures rescale, since each signal's P&L is linear in position size.
Headline
Total invested
$616.33M
61,633 signals × $10k
Follower ending value
$708.71M
+15.0% on capital
SPY ending value
$714.65M
+16.0% on same dollars
Alpha vs SPY
−$5.94M
-1.0% of invested capital
Beat SPY (win rate)
34%
signals with positive alpha
Avg signal return
+15.0%
Median signal return
+0.3%
Avg hold
324d
3.6 quarters
Realized P&L curve
Cumulative profit · follower vs SPYFollower P&L (realized)SPY P&L over the same windows
Per-fund contribution
| Fund | Signals | Invested | Follower | SPY | Alpha | Return | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two Sigma Investments | 12,538 | $125.38M | $147.1M | $143.11M | +$4M | +17.3% | 30% |
| Renaissance Technologies | 14,035 | $140.35M | $163.11M | $160.92M | +$2.19M | +16.2% | 37% |
| Citadel Advisors | 19,124 | $191.24M | $220.54M | $218.42M | +$2.11M | +15.3% | 32% |
| Appaloosa | 534 | $5.34M | $7.9M | $7.01M | +$886.37K | +48.0% | 46% |
| Tiger Global | 685 | $6.85M | $9.43M | $9.37M | +$58.07K | +37.7% | 38% |
| Pershing Square | 93 | $930K | $1.14M | $1.1M | +$41.67K | +22.8% | 56% |
| Soros Fund Management | 724 | $7.24M | $7.65M | $7.85M | −$194.05K | +5.7% | 31% |
| Berkshire Hathaway | 397 | $3.97M | $4.66M | $4.96M | −$299.94K | +17.3% | 36% |
| Bridgewater Associates | 13,503 | $135.03M | $147.18M | $161.91M | −$14.73M | +9.0% | 36% |
Biggest alpha winners
- PLTR · PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INCBridgewater Associates · Q4 2022 → Q2 2025+$155.51K+1604%% vs SPY +49%%
- PLTR · PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INCBridgewater Associates · Q2 2022 → Q2 2025+$141.46K+1461%% vs SPY +46%%
- SHOP · SHOPIFY INCTiger Global · Q3 2015 → Q3 2023+$140.58K+1520%% vs SPY +114%%
- BILI · BILIBILI INCTiger Global · Q3 2018 → Q1 2021+$125.81K+1296%% vs SPY +38%%
- QUBT · QUANTUM COMPUTING INCCitadel Advisors · Q3 2024 → Q1 2025+$123.53K+1247%% vs SPY +12%%
- PLTR · PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INCBridgewater Associates · Q2 2023 → Q2 2025+$122.76K+1270%% vs SPY +43%%
- BILI · BILIBILI INCTiger Global · Q2 2018 → Q1 2021+$107.93K+1124%% vs SPY +45%%
- CYPH · LEAP THERAPEUTICS INCCitadel Advisors · Q3 2025 → Q4 2025+$102.29K+1027%% vs SPY +4%%
- UAMY · UNITED STATES ANTIMONY CORPRenaissance Technologies · Q3 2024 → Q3 2025+$99.29K+1014%% vs SPY +21%%
- AXTI · AXT INCRenaissance Technologies · Q4 2025 → Q2 2026+$99K+1001%% vs SPY +11%%
Biggest alpha losses
- IQ · IQIYI INCBridgewater Associates · Q2 2020 → Q3 2025−$21.51K-89%% vs SPY +126%%
- IQ · IQIYI INCBridgewater Associates · Q3 2019 → Q3 2025−$20.93K-89%% vs SPY +120%%
- TAL · TAL EDUCATION GROUPBridgewater Associates · Q2 2020 → Q3 2025−$20.46K-78%% vs SPY +126%%
- TAL · TAL ED GROUPBridgewater Associates · Q1 2019 → Q3 2025−$19.94K-65%% vs SPY +135%%
- ATHM · AUTOHOME INCBridgewater Associates · Q2 2019 → Q3 2025−$19.87K-71%% vs SPY +128%%
- IQ · IQIYI INCBridgewater Associates · Q4 2019 → Q3 2025−$19.8K-89%% vs SPY +109%%
- ATHM · AUTOHOME INCBridgewater Associates · Q1 2019 → Q3 2025−$19.79K-63%% vs SPY +135%%
- ATHM · AUTOHOME INCBridgewater Associates · Q4 2018 → Q3 2025−$19.51K-58%% vs SPY +137%%
- TAL · TAL EDUCATION GROUPBridgewater Associates · Q2 2019 → Q3 2025−$19.42K-67%% vs SPY +128%%
- TAL · TAL ED GROUPBridgewater Associates · Q3 2018 → Q3 2025−$19.4K-65%% vs SPY +129%%
Caveats
- Heavy funds (Renaissance, Bridgewater, Citadel, Two Sigma) use 8-quarter snapshots; the rest use full history. The aggregate return reflects this uneven sampling.
- All buys priced at the 13F filing date (45 days after period-end — the earliest a follower could act). Exits priced at the next filing's date.
- No transaction costs, taxes, slippage, or dividends modeled. Prices are unadjusted-close from Yahoo Finance.
- Open positions are marked-to-market at the most recent close. Their sell-side P&L is unrealized.
- Signals with unmapped tickers (small/foreign/delisted) are excluded. Options and short positions are excluded throughout.