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Backtest

Third Point LLC

What you'd have made by mirroring Third Point LLC's public 13F filings, starting with $10,000 on Aug 14, 2013 and rebalancing at every disclosure through Jun 2, 2026.

52 filings replayed375 of 605 CUSIPs mapped to tickers701 closed trades33 still open
Benchmark
SPYIWMQQQEFAAGG
S&P 500 — US large-cap broad market

Equity curve

$10,000 mirrored · vs SPY
$10k$20k$30k$40k$50k2015201720192021202320252026
Mirror portfolio$10k in SPY
Mirror — final
$43.23K
SPY — final
$55.94K
Mirror return
+332.3%
Excess return vs SPY
-127.1%

Risk profile

Weekly mirror returns vs SPY · rf ≈ 4%
Sharpe
0.42
Max drawdown
-48.2%
Beta vs SPY
1.06
Information ratio
-0.21
CAGR
+12.1%
Volatility (ann.)
19.3%
Sortino
0.37
α (Jensen, ann.)
-2.9%
Tracking error
10.7%
Upside capture
102%
Downside capture
107%
Window
12.8y

Drawdown

Underwater curve — distance below running peak
-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%-48.2%2015201720192021202320252026

Largest drawdown: -48.2% from 2021-10-20 to 2022-06-22 · not yet recovered.

Style decomposition

R² 37% · 668 weekly obs

Multivariate regression of weekly mirror excess return on five style factors built from the benchmark ETFs: SPY (market), IWM−SPY (size), QQQ−SPY (growth), EFA−SPY (international), AGG−SPY (bonds). The intercept is the “true alpha” after stripping these passive tilts. ✓ marks loadings whose |t-stat| ≥ 2 (≈ 95% confidence the loading is non-zero).

Market (β)
+0.89✓
Size tilt
+0.17✓
Growth tilt
+0.12
International tilt
+0.15✓
Bond tilt
+0.17
α (style-adjusted)
+2.9%
R²
37%
α t-stat
0.67
Observations
668

Rolling 1y alpha

Trailing 52w mirror return − SPY return
-20%0%+20%avg -1.3%now -10.9%201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Whether the headline alpha was earned recently or decades ago. Bands above the zero line are quarters where the mirror beat SPY on a trailing-year basis; bands below are quarters where it lost ground. A flat positive line = steady outperformance; a curve that crosses often = regime-dependent strategy.

Realized P&L · closed trades

Cumulative profit from positions opened and later sold
$0$5.0k$10kDHR +$1.7kS −$1.5kSPGI +$957GOOGL +$8832015201720192021202320252026
Realized P&L
+$12.41K
Closed trades
701
Win rate
30%
Avg return / closed
+4.7%

Biggest closed trades

IssuerEntryExitHeldReturnP&L
DANAHER CORP DEL
DHR
Q4 2015Q2 202539Q+395%+$757.54M
SENTINELONE INC
S
Q3 2021Q2 20237Q-63%−$679.07M
S&P GLOBAL INC
SPGI
Q3 2016Q3 202224Q+246%+$421.59M
ALPHABET INC
GOOGL
Q2 2016Q3 20189Q+73%+$388.78M
PG&E CORP
PCG
Q4 2020Q2 202622Q+44%+$347.27M
SOFI TECHNOLOGIES INC
SOFI
Q3 2021Q4 20211Q+60%+$334.55M
PAYPAL HLDGS INC
PYPL
Q3 2018Q1 20206Q+39%+$320.6M
BAXTER INTL INC
BAX
Q3 2015Q4 202021Q+113%+$312.69M
UPSTART HLDGS INC
UPST
Q1 2021Q2 20225Q-59%−$307.31M
META PLATFORMS INC
META
Q4 2023Q2 20256Q+92%+$304.99M

Every trade · entry date × return

Bubble = position size at entry
-50%-25%0%+25%+50%+100%+200%+500%VST · +484%TSM · +396%DHR · +395%2015201720192021202320252026
PositiveNegativeStill open (marked to market)
Best closed pick
VST +484%
Worst closed pick
ENPH -88%
Total trades
734
Open trades
33