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ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT CORP
Backtest

ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT CORP

What you'd have made by mirroring ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT CORP's public 13F filings, starting with $10,000 on Aug 14, 2013 and rebalancing at every disclosure through May 31, 2026.

30 filings replayed150 of 314 CUSIPs mapped to tickers353 closed trades1 still open
BenchmarkUS Aggregate BondInvestment-grade bonds

Equity curve

$10,000 mirrored · vs AGG
$10k$15k$20k2015201720192021202320252026
Mirror portfolio$10k in AGG
Mirror — final
$10K
AGG — final
$13.06K
Mirror return
+0.0%
Excess return vs AGG
-30.6%

Risk profile

Weekly mirror returns vs AGG · rf ≈ 4%
Sharpe
-0.22
Max drawdown
-61.4%
Beta vs AGG
0.29
Information ratio
-0.11
CAGR
+0.0%
Volatility (ann.)
18.5%
Sortino
-0.14
α (Jensen, ann.)
-3.5%
Tracking error
18.8%
Upside capture
-0%
Downside capture
-14%
Window
12.8y

Drawdown

Underwater curve — distance below running peak
-60%-40%-20%0%-61.4%2015201720192021202320252026

Largest drawdown: -61.4% from 2018-06-06 to 2020-03-18 · not yet recovered.

Style decomposition

14% · 668 weekly obs

Multivariate regression of weekly mirror excess return on five style factors built from the benchmark ETFs: SPY (market), IWM−SPY (size), QQQ−SPY (growth), EFA−SPY (international), AGG−SPY (bonds). The intercept is the “true alpha” after stripping these passive tilts. ✓ marks loadings whose |t-stat| ≥ 2 (≈ 95% confidence the loading is non-zero).

Market (β)
+0.35
Size tilt
+0.22
Growth tilt
-0.06
International tilt
+0.21
Bond tilt
-0.05
α (style-adjusted)
-4.2%
14%
α t-stat
-0.87
Observations
668

Rolling 1y alpha

Trailing 52w mirror return − AGG return
-50%0%+50%avg +0.7%now -5.0%201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Whether the headline alpha was earned recently or decades ago. Bands above the zero line are quarters where the mirror beat AGG on a trailing-year basis; bands below are quarters where it lost ground. A flat positive line = steady outperformance; a curve that crosses often = regime-dependent strategy.

Realized P&L · closed trades

Cumulative profit from positions opened and later sold
$0$500$1.0kBTU −$1.0kFE +$539NTAP −$217AA +$1962014201520162017201820192020
Realized P&L
−$206.48
Closed trades
353
Win rate
12%
Avg return / closed
+0.7%

Biggest closed trades

IssuerEntryExitHeldReturnP&L
PEABODY ENERGY CORP NEW
BTU
Q3 2017Q2 202011Q-89%$459.15M
FIRSTENERGY CORP
FE
Q4 2018Q4 20194Q+26%+$245.5M
NETAPP INC
NTAP
Q3 2013Q2 20143Q-17%$98.66M
ALCOA CORP
AA
Q1 2017Q2 20185Q+31%+$89.31M
MARATHON PETE CORP
MPC
Q3 2019Q2 20203Q-30%$77.33M
MARATHON PETE CORP
MPC
Q4 2016Q1 20185Q+61%+$77.32M
DELL TECHNOLOGIES INC
DELL
Q1 2019Q2 20205Q-23%$73.19M
MEDNAX INC
MD
Q1 2018Q2 20195Q-48%$63.45M
DEVON ENERGY CORP NEW
DVN
Q3 2018Q1 20206Q-45%$59.89M
RYANAIR HLDGS PLC
RYAAY
Q1 2016Q1 20188Q+53%+$58.35M

Every trade · entry date × return

Bubble = position size at entry
-50%-25%0%+25%+50%+100%NRG · +102%BTU · -89%SM · -62%2014201520162017201820192020
PositiveNegativeStill open (marked to market)
Best closed pick
NRG +102%
Worst closed pick
BTU -89%
Total trades
354
Open trades
1