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Backtest

Third Point LLC

What you'd have made by mirroring Third Point LLC's public 13F filings, starting with $10,000 on Aug 14, 2013 and rebalancing at every disclosure through Jun 2, 2026.

52 filings replayed375 of 605 CUSIPs mapped to tickers701 closed trades33 still open
Benchmark
SPYIWMQQQEFAAGG
MSCI EAFE — Developed ex-US

Equity curve

$10,000 mirrored · vs EFA
$10k$20k$30k$40k2015201720192021202320252026
Mirror portfolio$10k in EFA
Mirror — final
$43.23K
EFA — final
$24.46K
Mirror return
+332.3%
Excess return vs EFA
+187.7%

Risk profile

Weekly mirror returns vs EFA · rf ≈ 4%
Sharpe
0.42
Max drawdown
-48.2%
Beta vs EFA
0.66
Information ratio
0.28
CAGR
+12.1%
Volatility (ann.)
19.3%
Sortino
0.37
α (Jensen, ann.)
+6.0%
Tracking error
17.1%
Upside capture
77%
Downside capture
59%
Window
12.8y

Drawdown

Underwater curve — distance below running peak
-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%-48.2%2015201720192021202320252026

Largest drawdown: -48.2% from 2021-10-20 to 2022-06-22 · not yet recovered.

Style decomposition

R² 37% · 668 weekly obs

Multivariate regression of weekly mirror excess return on five style factors built from the benchmark ETFs: SPY (market), IWM−SPY (size), QQQ−SPY (growth), EFA−SPY (international), AGG−SPY (bonds). The intercept is the “true alpha” after stripping these passive tilts. ✓ marks loadings whose |t-stat| ≥ 2 (≈ 95% confidence the loading is non-zero).

Market (β)
+0.89✓
Size tilt
+0.17✓
Growth tilt
+0.12
International tilt
+0.15✓
Bond tilt
+0.17
α (style-adjusted)
+2.9%
R²
37%
α t-stat
0.67
Observations
668

Rolling 1y alpha

Trailing 52w mirror return − EFA return
-40%-20%0%+20%+40%avg +5.7%now -4.3%201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Whether the headline alpha was earned recently or decades ago. Bands above the zero line are quarters where the mirror beat EFA on a trailing-year basis; bands below are quarters where it lost ground. A flat positive line = steady outperformance; a curve that crosses often = regime-dependent strategy.

Realized P&L · closed trades

Cumulative profit from positions opened and later sold
$0$5.0k$10kDHR +$1.7kS −$1.5kSPGI +$957GOOGL +$8832015201720192021202320252026
Realized P&L
+$12.41K
Closed trades
701
Win rate
30%
Avg return / closed
+4.7%

Biggest closed trades

IssuerEntryExitHeldReturnP&L
DANAHER CORP DEL
DHR
Q4 2015Q2 202539Q+395%+$757.54M
SENTINELONE INC
S
Q3 2021Q2 20237Q-63%−$679.07M
S&P GLOBAL INC
SPGI
Q3 2016Q3 202224Q+246%+$421.59M
ALPHABET INC
GOOGL
Q2 2016Q3 20189Q+73%+$388.78M
PG&E CORP
PCG
Q4 2020Q2 202622Q+44%+$347.27M
SOFI TECHNOLOGIES INC
SOFI
Q3 2021Q4 20211Q+60%+$334.55M
PAYPAL HLDGS INC
PYPL
Q3 2018Q1 20206Q+39%+$320.6M
BAXTER INTL INC
BAX
Q3 2015Q4 202021Q+113%+$312.69M
UPSTART HLDGS INC
UPST
Q1 2021Q2 20225Q-59%−$307.31M
META PLATFORMS INC
META
Q4 2023Q2 20256Q+92%+$304.99M

Every trade · entry date × return

Bubble = position size at entry
-50%-25%0%+25%+50%+100%+200%+500%VST · +484%TSM · +396%DHR · +395%2015201720192021202320252026
PositiveNegativeStill open (marked to market)
Best closed pick
VST +484%
Worst closed pick
ENPH -88%
Total trades
734
Open trades
33